Innovation Inspiration: Why Your Expert May be No Better than a Monkey

Many experts are no better than those without expertise at predicting outcomes. As innovators seek to make significant positive change, they often rely on solutions to predict which decisions will lead to those outcomes. However, prediction is inherently a guess or hypothesis based on incomplete information. While some predictions, like those based on cause-and-effect relationships, can be more reliable, predicting outcomes in areas like politics or innovation can be challenging. Rather than hiring experts for their guesses, it is better to utilize their knowledge and expertise to critique and improve an innovator’s own guesses. This involves seeking guidance on which ideas to experiment with and test, as well as detecting and correcting errors in methods and solutions.