Black Swans Are More Common Than You Think

IT projects can become black swans that result in a complete corporate meltdown due to unexpected high costs and schedule overruns. University of Oxford professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term Black Swan to describe rare, high-impact events that seem unpredictable but become probable in retrospect. In a study of 1471 IT projects, researchers found that one in six were black swans, with cost overruns of 200% on average and 70% schedule overruns. Large technology projects should undergo a stress test to evaluate readiness and contingency plans. Leveraging Enterprise Portfolio Management (EPM) techniques can provide visibility for well-informed investment and divestment decision making.